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Hurricane Irene’s tentative path tracks towards North Carolina, New York and Canadian Maritimes

Posted on Aug 29, 2011

Hurricane Irene's tentative path tracks towards North Carolina, New York and Canadian Maritimes

Canadian Underwriter Magazine 2011-08-26

Hurricane Irene is currently tracking towards the coast of North Carolina and could approach New York as a Category 1 hurricane on Aug. 28, before heading towards New England and the Canadian Maritimes as a tropical storm by Aug. 29.
Currently, there is a lot of guesswork as to whether or when Hurricane Irene might make landfall along the northeastern coast of the United States. If it follows the projected track up the eastern seaboard, then 65 million people will be in its path. FEMA officials say this is possibly the largest population to be threatened by a single storm. 
The Category 3 hurricane passed through the central Bahamas islands on Aug. 25 with maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour with higher gusts. 
"Hurricane Irene's track after the storm leaves the Bahamas remains uncertain," catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide notes in a press release. "At present, it is expected to curve to the north, reaching North Carolina's Outer Banks late Saturday. 
"A slight westward shift in the NHC [National Hurricane Centre] track brings Irene over the Outer Banks rather than just offshore has been forecast [on Aug. 24]. Irene will then move north toward New York City, possibly arriving as a Category 1 hurricane on [Aug. 28]."
The National Hurricane Centre has Irene reaching North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.
RMS cites an extended NHC forecast showing Irene making a second landfall over eastern Long Island, New York on Aug. 28. This would be around 60 miles east of New York City, NY. 
"There is however a large cone of uncertainty associated with this extended forecast and should the track deviate to the west then Irene could potentially impact a larger portion of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern seaboard of the U.S. including Ocean City, Maryland and Atlantic City, New Jersey," RMS notes.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) shows a tracking map suggesting Irene could sweep through eastern Quebec or Atlantic Canada on Aug. 29 as a tropical storm with wind speeds of between 85 km-h and 100 km-h. A CHC bulletin notes it is too early to predict precisely which areas in Canada Irene might affect. 
Willis notes insurers have already suffered significant losses from catastrophes in New Zealand, the earthquake in Japan, and other U.S. storms. "But capital is abundant," the insurer says in a release related to Hurricane Irene. "Willis believes the industry would need to experience a loss event of $15 billion to $20 billion to materially change the market for commercial customers."